#013 - Measuring Real Impact Along the Coffee Supply Chain

While launching our operations, we were divided between Brazil - where we focused on developing sourcing - and Europe - where we handled the legal structure, marketing, and demands from coffee buyers.

Now, our legal infrastructure is in place. We are based in the Netherlands as Meiero Coffee B.V., benefiting from Dutch governance, infrastructure, and human capital to deliver green coffee anywhere in Europe. This has allowed us to engage deeply with coffee buyers who are increasingly concerned with long-term issues such as climate change, environmental challenges, and sustainable relationships among purchasers, producers, and employees.

Our clients are seriously demanding positive impact.

In this context, certifications remain the most widely adopted measure of impact. Rainforest Alliance, headquartered in New York City, certifies environmental practices. Fairtrade International, headquartered in Bonn, Germany, certifies fair commercial relationships. Nespresso, based in Switzerland, has even developed its own AAA Sustainable Quality Program. And there are many others.

That's great. But frankly, the real work needs to happen at origin!

From a producer’s perspective, we believe much more can be done. The main bottlenecks remain access to capital, technology, and information.

As such, the best metric for true impact is a transparent calculation of Return on Invested Capital (ROIC).

If a cooperative has no capital invested in machinery and infrastructure, it is unlikely to add meaningful value - and may even pressure the supply chain. The same applies to traders and large roasters. A trip to origin without a commitment has no real value.

Third wave roasters naturally cannot afford to maintain fixed infrastructure at origin. Then, the solution is straightforward: buy from someone who does have real infrastructure at the source.

That is why we are committed to improving how we communicate impact.

Beyond transparent pricing ($ per kg), we will provide full transparency on our Return on Invested Capital. We will clearly show how we invest, address bottlenecks, and create real impact at origin.

What could this mean for the industry?

Key players across the supply chain would be incentivized to increase investments up to the point where they still generate returns above the cost of capital—a principle already common among large companies. This metric can attract fresh capital and empower the weakest links in the value chain.

We believe this approach can be a game-changer for the industry: Dutch governance + the right incentives to create real impact at origin.

It will be highly attractive to conscious and patient capital.

This is just the beginning.

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Weekly Highlights:

• Coffee Futures C Price in NY: -11.42% weekly, at 289.30 cents/lb.

• Coffee Price in Brazil's B3 in USD: -11.42% weekly, at 378.60 USD per 60kg bag.

• BRL/USD fx rate: +0.77% weekly.

• Proxy of 20' container freight prices from Santos to Rotterdam: down ~7% weekly.

• Starbucks reported its best quarterly results in two years, highlighting strategic menu innovations and operational efficiencies amid shifting consumer preferences for premium coffee experiences.

• De’Longhi achieved record 2025 results, driven by strong demand for home coffee machines, reflecting a consumer shift toward at-home brewing for consistency and convenience.

• Nestlé's new CEO revealed a personal habit of consuming 8 cups of coffee daily, underscoring executive-level endorsement of high coffee intake amid broader industry discussions on health and productivity.

• U.S. coffee consumption reached 66% daily among Americans in 2025, up 7% from 2020, but Starbucks' market share fell to 48% as consumers favored rivals like Dunkin' and drive-thru chains.

• Laird Superfood acquired Navitas for $39 million in December 2025, a strategic M&A move to expand in plant-based and health-focused coffee alternatives.

• Nueva Vizcaya, Philippines, allocated ₱5.7 million for coffee industry enhancements, a governmental initiative to boost local production through technology and climate resilience.

• Starbucks announced free coffee giveaways on February 9, 2026, as a strategic promotion to drive traffic and introduce new brews amid competitive pressures.

• India's 2026 Budget withdrew duty concessions on imported coffee machines, potentially increasing costs for machine-brewed coffee in cafes under new governmental fiscal rules.

• U.S. tariffs on coffee-producing countries were discussed, with exemptions confirmed, providing strategic relief to importers and stabilizing supply chains for 2026.

• Home coffee routines in 2026 emphasized speed and consistency, with consumers prioritizing durable, easy-to-use equipment amid hybrid work schedules.

• Brazil's Conab’s first official survey (released February 5-6, 2026) forecasts a record 66.2 million 60-kg bags (processed), up 17.1% from the 2025 cycle. If confirmed, it would exceed the prior record of 63.1 million bags in 2020; private estimates (e.g., Hedgepoint, Safras & Mercado, Itaú BBA, Sucden) range higher at 69-75 million bags for the 2026/27 cycle.